BETTING / KALSHI LAB
Find the edge.
Keep the receipts.
Our NFL projections meet the market. An automatic paper test tracks the entry, the exit, and what’s left after fees.
No experiment has been verified yet.
Buy, hold, or sell.
15%+ estimated return to enter · after feesConnecting the dots
Checking current markets and recorded paper trades.
Every entry. Every exit.
Actual simulated spend can be below $100 when liquidity is limited.The seven-day scorecard.
Each experiment keeps its own strategy version.The rules of this paper test
Price the outcome
The same Film Room, recent usage, player history, comparable players and matchup model supplies the stat projection. Historical game variation estimates the chance of clearing a contract’s exact threshold. Projections assume the eligible player participates; nonparticipation follows the contract’s settlement rules.
Make the fill earn its place
A buy needs at least 15% expected return after estimated taker fees. It waits at least 30 seconds and checks a new order book. Only whole contracts available within the $100 budget and price limit fill.
Know when to leave
Sell before kickoff when the expected remaining return falls to 2% or less after exit fees, or when the player becomes ineligible. Otherwise hold for Kalshi’s official settlement. No in-game trading uses pregame probabilities.
Keep the test honest
One purchase per player/game, three per game and $2,000 maximum open cost. New buys stop five minutes before kickoff. Spread, limited depth, partial fills, stale quotes and fractional settlements all affect the result.
These probabilities are experimental. Paper fills approximate what was executable; they cannot prove a real order would have filled. A profitable week is evidence to investigate, not proof of a lasting edge. Fees are conservatively rounded up to cents per price level. No maker rebates are assumed.
Hard Rock & FanDuel comparison board
Betting / NFL player props
Know the number.
Find the price.
Stat projections, outcome probabilities and the price available at the book. Upcoming games within 24 hours.
Price opportunities
Checking pricesHow the probability and edge are calculated
Projected stats use the fantasy model's current roles, Film Room usage, recent player history, similar players and opponent adjustments. Historical game variation around earlier, pregame baselines supplies an estimated outcome distribution.
Expected return = win probability × net payout − loss probability. Pushes refund the stake. Fair odds and the market probability after removing the bookmaker margin are shown separately. Only prices captured and updated within 15 minutes qualify.
Probabilities are experimental. Historical checks below each price evaluate the variation layer against prior-appearance baselines, using synthetic half-point thresholds. They do not validate the full fantasy forecast model or establish historical betting profit. Inactive players, ambiguous matches and insufficient histories receive no edge.